Goods barometer points to resilient trade growth despite headwinds
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for merchandise trade, providing an early indication of the trajectory of world trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while values less than 100 indicate that the volume of trade has fallen below trend.
The latest barometer reading of 102.0 (represented by the blue line in the above chart) is above both the baseline value of 100 and its previous reading of 101.7 from last June, indicating that merchandise trade is above trend and continues to gain momentum. The negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East continues to be partly offset by strong demand for electronic components and other goods linked to investment in artificial intelligence (AI).
All of the barometer's component indices are above their common baseline value of 100 to varying degrees except for the container shipping index (99.6), which has dipped slightly below trend. The strongest reading was for the electronic components index (104.9), reflecting robust demand for AI-enabling goods. The highly predictive export orders index (103.5) has also strengthened, pointing to continued growth in merchandise trade in the months ahead. The indices representing international air freight (102.8) and agricultural raw materials trade (102.6) have risen firmly above trend while the automotive products index (101.5) has risen slightly above trend. Taken together, the component indices suggest that merchandise trade growth has remained resilient despite elevated uncertainty surrounding trade policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The WTO Secretariat's most recent Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (GTOS) report, issued on 19 March 2026, forecast growth in world merchandise trade volume of 1.9% in 2026 under a baseline scenario and 1.4% under a high-energy-price scenario reflecting headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East. The report also noted that sustained investment in AI could add 0.5 percentage points to merchandise trade growth. Year-on-year growth in the volume of world merchandise trade remained positive in the first quarter of 2026. Trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be more fully captured in trade data for the second quarter once figures for this period are available. An update to the GTOS report will be published in October.
The full Goods Trade Barometer is available here.
Further details on the methodology can be found in the technical note here.
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